SPOT SILVER 4 HOUR
Silver has been trading within a downward sloping channel since the August high. The 11/30 low was right at VWAP from the March low (see SLV chart below), so bullish risk is against Monday’s low. Near term, watch for resistance near 25.07/56. Eventually, focus will be on identifying a higher low against Monday’s low.
SLV 4 HOUR
DXY 4 HOUR
The USD destruction continues. Wave 5 within the 5 wave cycle from the March high would equal wave 1 at 90.02. If that doesn’t hold then 89ish is in focus and a major level to watch for support.
12/1 – Watch 90.90 in DXY. This is the 2017 low and March 2018 high. If that fails to hold, then there is nothing until weekly reversal support at 89.08. A rally from here (or 90.90) wouldn’t be a shock however given the median line from the Schiff fork off of the March high. This line was support in October.
BRITISH POUND FUTURES 8 HOUR
Cable tested 1.3500 today before pulling back. Another volume reversal triggered today as well…this one an 8 hour signal. There is no change to tactics…I am still looking to short below 1.3290.
12/2 – GBPUSD made a 2 day volume reversal today from a 1 year closing high. The last bearish one was the day of the January 2018 high. Signals are shown here for the past 5 years. Importantly, price is pressing against the massive 1.3500 level (see weekly chart below). Watch for 1.3390 resistance (high volume level). Under 1.3290 would warrant a short position.
NZDUSD DAILY
NZDUSD is little changed for the last 2 days. Daily RSI is now above 80. Previous instances are shown with magenta dots on the chart. Tactically, a drop under .7000 is still needed in order to establish a short against the high.
12/2 – Expanding on yesterday’s Kiwi comments, a drop under .7000 would suggest that a top is in place. Until then, continue to focus on .7152. It’s worth noting that an 8 hour volume reversal triggered today (see below).
USDTRY 4 HOUR
Continue to watch for support near 7.7145 in USDTRY. Weakness since 11/24 remains proposed wave B within a 3 wave rally from the 11/20 low.
11/29 – My view is that the rally and drop since 11/19 are waves A and B of a 3 wave correction. Wave C should get underway either now or from near 7.7145 (61.8% retrace).